The Indian government has maintained the interest rates on small savings schemes, including PPF and NSC, for the eighth consecutive quarter, starting April 1, 2026.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
The Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has decided to maintain the interest rate on employees' provident fund (EPF) deposits at 8.25 per cent for the fiscal year 2025-26, marking the second consecutive year at this rate.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the key policy rates will remain at low levels for a long period and may go down even further.
The Indian government has ratified an 8.25 per cent interest rate on Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) deposits for the financial year 2025-26, with over seven crore contributing members expected to see this credited to their accounts this month.
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
Shrugging off concerns over the depreciation of rupee, the RBI has cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent in a bid to further bolster economic growth, which rose to a six-quarter high of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
The reduction in the number of loan accounts and the outstanding amount during the last financial year is a cause of concern and stress for microfinance institutions (MFI), Secretary, Department of Financial Services, M Nagaraju said on Thursday, highlighting "inefficiency" in MFIs that leads to higher rates of interest.
Retirement fund body EPFO on Friday retained an interest rate of 8.25 per cent on employees' provident fund (EPF) deposits for 2024-25, sources said. In February 2024, the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) had increased the interest rate on EPF marginally to 8.25 per cent for 2023-24, from 8.15 per cent in 2022-23.
The case for long-term investment in gold, however, remains intact.
Analysts predict that inflation data, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and crude oil price trends will be the primary factors influencing the movement of Indian stock markets. Geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran deal, and foreign investor activity will also play a crucial role.
Moody's Ratings has highlighted that Indian banks are among the most exposed in the Asia-Pacific region to the West Asia crisis, primarily due to India's high dependence on energy imports, which could lead to increased inflation, higher interest rates, and strained borrower cash flows.
Legendary economist and former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has died at the age of 100 due to complications related to Parkinson's disease, his wife Andrea Mitchell confirmed.
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
Analysts predict that developments in US-Iran negotiations, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and key global economic data will be the primary drivers of gold and silver prices in the coming week, with a strong focus on talks in Switzerland.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower on Thursday, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran, persistent foreign fund outflows, and concerns over rising US inflation.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is projected to maintain an annual run-rate of approximately $200 billion, evenly split between domestic, inbound, and outbound transactions, despite global geopolitical turbulence, according to Rajesh Singhi, global co-head, M&A Advisory, Standard Chartered Bank.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed marginally lower due to profit-taking, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged while lowering its growth expectations for the current fiscal year and forecasting higher inflation.
Students and families must stress test repayment capacity based on Indian salary standards.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
With the interest rate cut cycle nearing its end, several debt fund managers are shifting their focus towards interest income rather than betting on duration in anticipation of capital gains.
Indian companies recorded their highest profit margins in 21 quarters during Q4FY26, reaching 11.3 per cent, primarily due to significant savings from lower employee costs and reduced interest payments, which offset rising raw material prices.
'Existing investors who have not acted so far may consider holding on to these funds with the understanding that the higher returns they expected from them may now take longer to materialise.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has said the decision on interest rate moderation will be based on long-term inflation trajectory and not monthly data. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by the RBI Governor is scheduled to meet between October 7 and 9 and take call on interest rate. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the ninth time in a row amid risks from higher food inflation.
A potential US-Iran peace deal, expected to be signed on June 19, is anticipated to ease geopolitical stress and benefit various sectors, particularly in India, with analysts suggesting investors await finer details before making significant moves.
Global investment firm KKR remains optimistic about India's long-term growth, citing rising incomes, premiumisation, financial deepening, and demand for quality services as key drivers for its consumption story, even as higher energy prices and AI disruption pose near-term challenges.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 14,231 crore from Indian equities so far in May, extending the total outflow for 2026 to over Rs 2 lakh crore, driven by persistent global macroeconomic uncertainties including inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
We who were dreaming of being the third largest economy in dollar terms, have slid back to sixth, thanks to the falling rupee. We are moving about with begging bowls for investments and trade opportunities, which will be a while in materialising, if ever, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
Maharashtra BJP MLC Pravin Darekar announced the launch of 'Devabhau' and 'Chhava' cooperative taxi services in Mumbai, aiming to counter private aggregators and benefit drivers directly, but the scheme has drawn sharp criticism from social activist Anjali Damania and the Opposition Congress over the proposed use of Mumbai Bank funds and its political branding.
'Whether you will bring this down and cause hurt to senior citizens, who are probably living on that little interest rate that they earn out of it... But equally, if I just look at the kitty of the National Small Savings Fund, it is from that same kitty that I'm borrowing.'
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
'India has initiated a bear market and we will still go lower. It has nothing to do with the economy.'
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
LAMF allows investors to access liquidity while staying invested.
